Sudden Impact
Positions Where Rookies Contribute Immediately

By Joe Landers

You’re Miami’s GM Jeff Ireland and you need help now at many positions on both sides of the ball. You’ll choose to get “help now” via veteran free agency at some positions and you’ll defer to the draft as your source for shoring up other positions. The following two-year study illustrates the relative effectiveness of rookies at each and every position over the course of a full 16-game season. Its purpose is to serve as a guide for organizations seeking immediate help from their incoming rookie class.

Certainly, talent availability at each and every position fluctuates every year, whether you’re getting it through veteran free agency or the draft. Nevertheless, over the years, as we’ve seen with other studies (e.g., Two-Deep Draft-Round Propensity), many of the truths that become self-evident on the field through actual player performance will remain consistent from year to year, regardless of talent availability. Why? Because it’s easier to make the move from college to the NFL at some positions than others. What are those positions? Where is the data to prove the conclusions?

Let’s stick with the Miami example. Based on a number of recent public polls, the Dolphins’ number one priority for the 2008 NFL Draft should be quarterback. Number two? Defensive line. Clearly, the availability of Glenn Dorsey somewhat colors the opinion of many that defensive line is a top priority. Considering Miami’s 1-15 record and Cam Cameron’s quick release, it can be argued quite easily that the Dolphins don’t have four years to turn their fortunes around. They would be ill-advised to select any position in the draft that commonly requires two years or more for a rookie to make an impact in the NFL. Is defensive tackle a position where rookies can typically make a quick impact?

DEFENSIVE TACKLE (IMPACT: 5, OVA: 8%)

In 2006, 20 rookie defensive tackles contributed on the field in the regular season. Based on the Landers efficiency model, the average rookie DT’s productivity was measured at 17.36 in 2006 (see model details below). Of the 115 veteran DTs who contributed in 2006, the average productivity was 35.80 – nearly double the average rookie. Only four of the 2006 rookie DTs had higher productivity than the average veteran. To punctuate the point, twenty rookie defensive tackles were good enough to contribute on the field right away in the NFL in 2006, but only four surpassed the average veteran. The 57th best veteran defensive tackle in 2006 would’ve measured 35.8 in their productivity. Only four rookie DTs performed better than the top-57 veterans. Is that good? Is that bad? Whatever it is, those four rookie defensive tackles represent 7% of the league’s defensive tackles that performed above average. (7% were Over Veteran Average, OVA) Congratulations go out to Kyle Williams, Barry Cofield, Domata Peko, and Kedric Golston. Three of these four also surpassed the league average in 2007. Also of note, respectively, they were drafted in the 5th, 4th, 4th, and 6th rounds.

In 2007, 18 rookie defensive tackles contributed on the field in the regular season. The average productivity for those 18? 19.73. 114 veteran DTs contributed in 2007. The average veteran DT’s productivity: 30.76. Only five of those contributing 18 rookie DTs had a higher productivity than the average veteran defensive tackle. Four out of twenty in 2006 and five out of eighteen in 2007 – fairly consistent. As far as 2007, goes that comes out to 8% of the league’s above average DTs being rookies. Congratulations go out to Adam Carriker, Amobi Okoye, Clifton Ryan, Ed Johnson, and Brandon Mebane. (1st round, 1st rd, 5th, undrafted, and 3rd.)

In 2008, based on the 2006 and 2007 numbers (7% and 8%), odds are that we’re looking no higher than 9% and no lower than 6% of the league’s upper half of defensive tackles being rookies. Approximately five rookie defensive tackles can be expected to perform among the top-60 DTs in the league. Will Glenn Dorsey be one of those five? Considering that the #1 source for DTs on NFL two-deeps is the 1st round (21%), odds are decent that Glenn Dorsey (and/or Sedrick Ellis) will be one of the five rookie DTs that perform above league average in 2008.



QUARTERBACK (IMPACT: 1, OVA: 3%)

Sticking to the theme of Miami, let’s take a look at the Quarterback position and how easy it has been for rookies to make an impact at that position in their first year.



The top quarterbacks in this year’s draft, in no particular order, are Woodson, Ryan, Flacco, Henne, Brohm, Ainge, Booty, Flynn, and Brennan. An average of 13 QBs get taken every draft and another twenty get signed as undrafted free agents, but no one in the 2008 rookie class of quarterbacks is going to be able to step in and even approximate what Cutler and Young did for Denver and Tennessee in 2006. Yes, the 2-yr average is one rookie QB coming in Over Vet Avg (OVA) per year, but if any rookie quarterback comes in OVA, it will be on a team that has a fighting chance to win more than a three games. Taking any of the available quarterbacks with the #1 pick would be part of a four-year plan that the current Dolphins’ front office won’t be around to see play out if they happen to choose that route. They need to go with a veteran free agent.

Making the choice between solving a certain deficiency via veteran free agency or the draft might be a little more clear when considering past rookie performance at each position.

ALL POSITIONS

Below is a table presented in descending order with the top rookie impact positions first and the lowest rookie impact positions last.



Out of all players above average at any given position, rookies will always constitute less than 30%. The only positions that might ever approximate a number as high as 30% would be those that only have one player on the field at any given time: punters, kickers, quarterbacks, tight ends, and running backs. Even then, it is extremely rare in the modern era of the NFL, for example, for more than 30% of rookie tight ends (or QBs, RBs, etc) to contribute above average for an entire season.

Therefore, the real draft advice here is to be found in the stark contrast from season to season. Where there is consistency at a position, there is a position that rookies typically can excel at, regardless of the available talent level. Where there’s inconsistency, rookie success is going to be more dependent upon available talent. Safety (11% 2007, 12% 2006), cornerback (9%, 8%), defensive tackle (8%, 7%), fullback (7%, 8%), and tight end (7%, 7%) are the most independent of available talent. Need any one of five positions in this upcoming draft? (Mr. Ireland?) Next year, regardless of available talent (look at the draft rounds for the DTs in the Miami example above), there will be between 4 and 5 defensive tackles who perform above league average.

For positions with inconsistency, they’ll be highly dependent upon talent level; a wide disparity between 2007 and 2006 numbers will be evident. Linebacker (3% 2007, 10% 2006), kicker (12%, 0%), defensive end (2%, 11%), quarterback (0%, 6%), running back (8%, 15%), punter (7%, 13%), and wide receiver (9%, 5%) are highly dependent upon talent being available to plug into the right team.

Of course, to get solid indisputable numbers, it’s necessary to compile five to six years of recent data. As other years are gathered, the theory can be refined and fine-tuned year after year.

LANDERS EFFICIENCY MODEL

My efficiency model is designed to comparatively measure players across the league at the same position as well as players on the same team at different positions. Virtually every occurrence on the field can be assigned a value. Things as typical as rush yards, pass yards, and touchdowns are givens while tackles-for-loss, forced fumbles, passes broken up, penalty yards, and quarterback hurries are a bit more atypical.