FIRST ROUND MOCK DRAFT (1-8)
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1 Cleveland QB Sam Darnold, USC
INSTANT ANALYSIS
Everyone knows the Browns are getting a quarterback with one of their top two picks and it would be a big surprise if they didn’t take one first.
That’s why I believe the real drama begins when the Giants are on the clock with the second pick.
If the Giants are more interested in selecting either DE/OLB Bradley Chubb or OG Quenton Nelson over a quarterback – which I believe they are - then the Browns are in great shape.
In this scenario, new GM John Dorsey would be able take Darnold No. 1 and offer the Giants a minimum of two second-round picks in order to move up and also acquire RB Saquon Barkley. You see the Browns have a deeper roster than you’d think for a team coming off a winless season. That’s why they need to stock their team with upper-echelon difference-makers and they have just the draft capital to make it happen.
The Giants also benefit from this deal just as San Francisco did last year when the Bears moved up one spot for QB Mitch Trubisky. The Niners were able to add more picks and still ended up with the same player they would have if they had remained at No. 2 (DL Solomon Thomas).
The only way I can see the Giants passing on a deal like this would be if they were head-over-heels for Barkley and there was nothing you could offer them to change their minds.
If the Giants do happen to hold on to this pick though, then the Browns would probably end up trading the fourth pick to either Buffalo or Miami. But if they hold on to the pick, then I would expect them to select either OLB Tremaine Edmunds or DB Minkah Fitzpatrick.
2 Cleveland (via NYG trade) RB Saquon Barkley, Penn State
3 NY Jets QB Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
INSTANT ANALYSIS
Many analysts believe the Jets will end up with QB Josh Rosen. I’m just having a hard time believing it would be a good marriage.
Don’t get me wrong, I like Rosen, but based on what we know about him, I have a hard time believing he would fit in better with the New York market and with the Jets conservative owner (Woody Johnson) than Mayfield would.
There are just too many potential minefields that Rosen would have to navigate through if he’s given the responsibility of trying to change an entire culture from a depressed franchise all while having to change your own by moving from one coast to the other. Dude meet Man. Man meet Dude. Trouble.
By the way, I would venture to think the Jets draft board would have Saquon Barkley right near the top. I’m just saying.
4 NY Giants (via Cleveland trade) OG Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame
INSTANT ANALYSIS
New GM Dave Gettleman returns to his roots where he spent 15 years in the Giants front office. With Carolina, Gettleman selected the fewest players in the NFL Draft during his first four seasons there and has negotiated four draft day trades the over the last three years. That means he prefers quality over quantity. But the Panthers already had a well-stocked roster thanks to the man he replaced, Marty Hurney. Hurney is an excellent talent evaluator who failed miserably at cap restraint.
The Giants have no such roster wealth though. Which begs the question of whether they will remain at No. 2 and take the best player in the draft (RB Saquon Barkley) or trade down and add more picks (quantity)?
As much as I believe the Giants would love having Barkley in their backfield, I can’t forget the number of times I watched Barkley lose yards behind the line of scrimmage at Penn State last season, and if Barkley has nowhere to run in New York, things can get real ugly.
The Giants did well by adding LT Nate Solder in free agency, but RT Erick Flowers, RG John Jerry and C Brett Jones are all free-agents after next season and Jones is the only one with decent stock. This is a big reason why the Giants need to think long and hard about trading down and adding picks. If they do, they can still end up with the best lineman in the draft at No. 4 and then with additional picks obtained in the Browns deal they can add two more impact players including a starting caliber running back and a right tackle prospect.
A matter of fact, the Giants could end up with the 33rd, 34th and 35th picks if they can swing it.
5 Miami (via Denver trade) QB Josh Rosen, UCLA
INSTANT ANALYSIS
The Dolphins need to give their fans something to get excited about because they’re in bad cap shape and they have a potential hole to fill at quarterback. Ryan Tannehill returns from his second serious knee injury and even if he can remain healthy, it was never a given that he was going to turn into the team’s long-term answer at the position regardless.
The Dolphins won’t have to rush a rookie either since Tannehill will be around for at least two more seasons based on his contract, providing a young quarterback with ample time to prepare for the job.
6 Indianapolis DE Bradley Chubb, NC State
INSTANT ANALYSIS
GM Chris Ballard continues to do a good job retooling the roster since taking over last year as evidenced by the most recent Jets deal in which he received three second-round picks. Not a bad deal since he’ll still end up with a player he probably would have chosen at No. 3 anyway.
7 Buffalo (via TB trade) QB Josh Allen, Wyoming
INSTANT ANALYSIS
It’s been no secret since last off-season what the Bills were aiming for when they began trading away player assets for draft picks. The have more than enough draft ammo to move ahead of Miami if they’re compelled to, but under this mock draft scenario they can wait their turn and still get the quarterback who would best fit their region.
Of course this all depends on whether they’re interested in one of the top four quarterbacks. If they’re not, they could wait a bit later and take their chances with either Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph.
If the Bills do hold the fort at No. 12 and based on the players left on this board, I would expect the Bucs to look at either LB Tremaine Edmunds or DB Minkah Fitzpatrick. Lavonte David is the only sure thing at linebacker while Fitzpatrick could fill several important roles in the Tampa Bay secondary.
If he were still available, OG Quenton Nelson would be a nice fit here too.
8 Chicago LB Tremaine Edmunds, Virginia Tech
INSTANT ANALYSIS
If the top four quarterbacks are taken, then several excellent defenders will end up sliding down the draft and Edmunds happens to be one of them.
The Bears would also be very pleased if OG Quenton Nelson were to drop too, but if both Nelson & Edmunds are already off the board, the Bears could end up as another trade-down candidate. It’s just a bit too high to select a tackle or receiver.