It’s interesting how a reputation can sink so fast. From the Peyton Manning era followed by a three-year healthy Andrew Luck stretch, the Colts franchise fielded perennial winning teams in Indianapolis for 15 years. But in a blink of an eye the Colts have missed the post-season for a third consecutive season, a slide of futility that until now they’ve been fortunate to avoid for over 20 years. Though recent times have become dispiriting lately, Colts fans should keep in perspective just how bad things had gotten not long after the glory days in Baltimore under legendary men like Shula & Unitas. That period of transition and turmoil that precipitated a late-night move to Indianapolis happened to be the worst of days this franchise has ever endured. 16 of 17 seasons - from 1978 through 1994 – the Colts failed to reach the post-season. But fear not Colts fans, those dismal days of Dowhower & Pagel won’t be returning anytime soon. That’s because with a little Luck, with G.M. Chris Ballard’s relentless pursuit to upgrade the roster and with new Head Coach Frank Reich set to lead them, the Colts are gearing up to be a relevant factor in the AFC playoff race once again.
Without a doubt the biggest hurdle to overcome is the return to health of Luck. Before a string of injuries began to take a toll starting with that lacerated kidney in 2015, Luck was on his way to becoming one of the elite players in the league. He won 11 games in each of his first three years as a pro and ended each season a step closer to a Super Bowl appearance than the season before, culminating with an AFC Championship loss to New England during the 2014 campaign (remember ‘Deflategate’?). Luck was fantastic that season, as he threw for 4,761-yards along with 40 TDs. That kind of performance should remind everyone just why the Colts need to be taken seriously as a playoff contender for 2018. And as long as Ballard continues to elevate the roster with another successful off-season, they might even exceed those expectations.
Don’t forget too that last year’s team actually led or was tied at halftime in 10 of 16 games as a former third-string quarterback turned-starter-overnight (Jacoby Brissett) took over the reins after he was acquired on the eve of the season. Oh, and they also lost 11 starters due to injuries.
So with even more money to invest this March including the third overall pick in the draft, the Colts are at another crossroads in their history. And from what I’ve seen so far from Ballard, I feel pretty good about what’s to come.
Key Free Agents
CB Rashaan Melvin
OG Jack Mewhort
PK Adam Vinatieri
RB Frank Gore
WR Donte Moncrief
Cap space ranking/amount
2nd/$79 million.
Offense
QB…No other team in the league can add a veteran or rookie quarterback to their roster next season and have such a positive impact than in Indianapolis with Andrew Luck. But nobody knows if Luck will be able to return to his old self and if he can stay healthy long enough to finish what he started. At this time, Ballard & Reich have no other recourse than to gamble on Luck. They need to go all in. This doesn’t mean they should completely ignore the rest of the position. Reich will need some time to decide if Brissett, with a little more seasoning and a better supporting cast, has what it takes to start successfully in the NFL. He was wildly inconsistent even though there were some positive signs to consider. He was acquired so late in the off-season that he had virtually no developmental time and was saddled with one of the worst lines in the league resulting in him getting sacked a whopping 52 times.
It would behoove Ballard to add a secondary developmental QB from the draft somewhere from the middle-to-late rounds. Top options include players like Mike White from Western Kentucky, Kyle Lauletta from Richmond and Luis Perez from Texas A&M Commerce.
RB…Even with loads of cap space it doesn’t make sense to bring back Frank Gore with Marlon Mack on the roster. Gore has stated he would rather play for a rebuilding team than sit for a Super Bowl winner and with Mack ready to assume a larger role following an impressive rookie season, there just won’t be enough snaps to satisfy Gore. So unless he has a change of heart, Gore won’t be back in Indy for 2018. And that’s too bad because Gore would be an ideal veteran back-up behind Mack. He’s been as durable as they come with 96 starts over the Colts last 96 games. And he’s also been very reliable averaging 1,065-yards per season over his last 11. But since become a Colt, Gore has seen his rushing averages decline to under four yards per carry in each of his three years there. Compare that to his entire pre-Colts career when he never averaged under four yards per carry and you get the point. Also, with only two rushes over 20-yards the past two seasons combined compared to Mack’s six rushes over 20-yards on 168 less carries last season, it’s obvious that Gore doesn’t possess the home-run threat ability that Mack does. Just another reason Gore, who turns 35 in May, shouldn’t be taking future touches away from last year’s 4th-round pick.
All this doesn’t mean if Gore departs, Ballard should keep the depth behind Mack the way it is. The jury is still out on whether Mack can handle most of the workload and without any top-tier back-ups behind Mack, I would expect Ballard to add a cheap veteran in free agency like Isaiah Crowell or maybe even Jamaal Charles. They could also look to the draft and add another mid-round pick like Akrum Wadley from Iowa, Mark Walton from Miami or my favorite, Justin Jackson from Northwestern.
A long-shot possibility would be if Ballard and Reich decide to spend more cash on a potential free agent like Carlos Hyde. Right now it’s a 50-50 possibility that Hyde re-signs with the 49ers, but if he becomes available and the Colts want more than just Mack leading their backfield, then this would be a very intriguing option. Keep in mind that Reich came from a very successful Philly offense that had not two, but three impact players (Ajayi, Blount and Clement) who each carried the ball over 70 times.
TE…Jack Doyle has been one of the lone bright spots the past two years for the Colts. He was a major part of the offense last season as opposing teams slid over in an attempt to take T.Y. Hilton out of the game. The former undrafted player from Western Kentucky led the Colts with 80 receptions and was just one target behind Hilton for the team lead with 108.
The Colts will need to add a competent No. 2 in case anything happens to Doyle because there’s no way they can rely on their current back-ups as a long-term solution. Darrell Daniels and Brandon Williams - who is coming off a serious head injury sustained Week 15 against Denver - combined for a putrid 16 receptions. Neither player has upside.
WR…After breaking out with a career-year under Luck in 2016, T.Y. Hilton’s totals regressed across the board with Brissett at the controls. But as long as Luck returns to the lineup, Hilton will be just fine. The big question at No. 2 is with free agent Donte Moncrief. Moncrief hasn’t been able to put it all together since being drafted in the third round in 2014. It did appear he was on his way in year-two until Luck went down with the kidney injury. Moncrief still ended up having his best season even after Matt Hasselbeck took over, but then injuries began to derail his career. Shoulder and hamstring injuries forced him to miss seven games in 2016 and then an ankle injury ended his season four games early last year. Moncrief has loads of talent and with that big hole behind Hilton on the depth chart, I expect the Colts will do what they can to bring him back because no team wants to see a player they’ve invested in as talented as Moncrief fulfill his potential elsewhere. Of course Ballard and Reich were not part of the regime that drafted him, so no one really knows what they’re thinking.
Chester Rogers showed signs of improvement in year-two as an undrafted player from Grambling State even though he missed the first five games of the season with a hamstring injury. And no one knows for sure what to expect from free agent Kamar Aiken. Many are wondering whether he can ever reproduce that breakout year with Baltimore in 2015 when he caught 75 passes for 944 yards and five scores.
No matter who they decide to add to the roster, it is imperative the Colts find receivers with a toughness and a willingness to block in the run game, a trait the unit sorely lacked last season.
OL…This will be a big priority position for Ballard to address. LT Anthony Castonzo is playing great football and was the only constant force for the Colts up-front last season. RG Jack Mewhort is a talented interior defender, but he’s missed 17 games since the start of the 2016 season with major knee injuries and now he’s a free agent. Chances are the Colts will bring him back at a reduced rate, but he’s not a player they can count on just yet. Another key player inside who missed nine games last season is former first-round pick, center Ryan Kelly. Kelly had a nice rookie campaign in 2016 and was expected to develop even more this past season until a foot injury in the pre-season kept him from the playing field for a month. Kelly returned and then suffered a head injury that ended his season five games early. If Kelly and Mewhort return to health and can perform at their highest possible level, the Colts will be in much better shape next season, especially if Joe Haeg can emerge at either one of the other guard or tackle spots. But that’s not a scenario Ballard can count on which is why he’s going to need to add at least two starting caliber lineman, as well as a few more players to build depth with.
It shouldn’t be a surprise as to why the Colts struggled along the offensive line after they fielded three undrafted players (C Deyshawn Bond, RG Kyle Kalis and LG Jeremy Vujnovich) and two 7th-round picks (RT Denzelle Good and C Michael Person). The other lineman who had a shot and failed was 2016 3rd-round pick, RG Le’Raven Clark. Clark was a decorated left tackle at Texas Tech for three years who possesses a great deal of natural ability and just needs more refinement in his game.
The Colts need to be better prepared if injuries occur along the offensive line again. And with nearly $80 million to spend in free agency along with a pick in every round, there’s no excuse if Ballard fails to improve the depth. Note: Kalis has already moved on to Washington.
Defense
DL…Ballard did a great job adding some key contributors to the defensive line including Johnathan Hankins, Margus Hunt and NT Al Woods. All three players had fine seasons with Hankins looking like a downright steal and a major building block as the team’s top defensive lineman overall. The other key player is Henry Anderson. When healthy, Anderson has been one of the Colts better defenders, but he’s missed 19 games in his three seasons including an ACL injury as a rookie and a fluke throat injury that ended his season after nine games last year.
A pair of former 4th-round picks add youth and potential to the interior in Hassan Ridgeway (2016) and Grover Stewart (2017).
With the Colts switching to a 4-3 alignment under new coordinator Matt Eberflus, linebacker Jabaal Sheard is expected to move to defensive end full-time. Sheard was another great signing by Ballard and was possibly the team’s top overall player last season. Also keep an eye on last year’s 3rd-round pick, Tarell Basham from Ohio. Basham played defensive end with the Bobcats and ended his college career as their all-time sack leader with 29 ½. He didn’t receive much playing time as a rookie linebacker, but with his experience back along the line, the Colts might see Basham take a big step forward in 2018.
Look for Ballard to continue upgrading the pass rush through the draft. That’s why former NC State DE Bradley Chubb could be his No. 1 option with the third overall pick. Chubb is the top defensive end prospect in the draft and will be available when the Colts are on the clock.
LB…Besides Sheard, Ballard signed three additional linebackers last off-season who all ended up as key contributors. Jonathan Bostic started more games (14) than any other year since being drafted in the second round by Chicago in 2013 and was second on the team in tackles (97) while leading the team with seven tackles-for-loss. Former Browns 1st-round pick Barkevious Mingo did a nice job in coverage and helped on special teams while former Texan John Simon added both pass and run support even though he missed seven games to neck and shoulder injuries. I expect Simon will fit in real well at the strong-side spot even under the new scheme. Bostic and Mingo are both free agents though and might not return.
The player to watch in this unit is last year’s 5th-round steal, Anthony Walker. The former Northwestern star dealt with a hamstring injury that forced him to miss most of the first half of the season, but once he did get a chance to start in a Week 16 game at Baltimore, he did not disappoint with an 8-tackle performance that included a huge punt-block in the 4th quarter. Walker would look good starting either in the middle or at the will linebacker position. If Ballard decides to bring Bostic back to play the will, then Walker would be just fine inside. If Bostic doesn’t return and Walker gets the will spot, then last year’s mike linebacker Antonio Morrison could return inside. He did lead the team with 108 tackles even though he’s still not the player he once was as an SEC standout for Florida before knee injuries began to take a toll. Hopefully another year of build-up will help Morrison’s game.
CB…What TE Jack Doyle meant for the offense these past two years, CB Rashaan Melvin has meant for the defense. That being a former undrafted player who's emerged into a major character for the team and a player who could be Ballard’s top free agent priority next month. Melvin became the team’s No. 1 corner this past season even though he missed the final six games with a hand injury. His increased production was important because former star corner Vontae Davis began to decline due to injuries. Davis was eventually benched and then released.
Ballard did a good job looking ahead at this position in last year’s draft by acquiring Quincy Wilson in the second round and Nate Hairston in the fifth. Wilson injured his knee early in the year and by time he returned only participated in seven games. He’s a top-level talent who should pair with Melvin to form an excellent duo for years to come. Hairston experienced a typical uneven rookie season, but he looked much better early on when the Colts secondary was at full strength. He should continue to fit in well at the nickel back position with Melvin and Wilson on the outside.
Kenny Moore is an undrafted rookie from Valdosta State who started five games late in the year after injuries opened the door for more playing time. All things considered he held his own and showed promise which could make free agent Pierre Desir expendable. Desir started six games until a shoulder injury ended his season a month early.
S…Matthias Farley is another undrafted player who has quickly become a building block at strong safety. Farley did a good job in the box against the run and was third on the team with 98 tackles. His partner, FS Malik Hooker, is a major talent who was taken 15th overall last April. Unfortunately he tore his ACL and missed the final nine games after getting off to a good start opposite Farley. Both safeties were first-time pro starters entering last season. There should be some questions as to Hooker’s ability to stay healthy though. Besides the knee, he’s also experienced significant injuries over his college career including to his shoulder and hip. That means both TJ Green and Clayton Geathers could be asked to play larger roles moving forward. Green doesn’t have the peak instincts of Hooker, but he has good size and elite speed for the position. Green replaced Hooker following the ACL injury and did well enough that the team should be hopeful he can become a key player on the back end in 2018 and beyond. Geathers is more of a pure box safety who will be Farley’s top back-up. He wasn’t able to play last season until the 11th game due to a serious neck injury from the year before. Nine-year vet Darius Butler will have to be re-signed to play a seventh straight year in Indy. The former Patriots 2nd-round pick started four games last year and might return as veteran insurance depending on Hooker’s rehab.
Special Teams
Future Hall of Fame place-kicker Adam Vinatieri wants to play some more and the Colts were smart to bring him back. Statistically his numbers have declined since his tremendous 2014 when he made 30 of 31 kicks, but keep in mind he missed two of five kicks last year during a snowstorm in Buffalo and he did make 5 of 6 from 50+.
Punter Rigoberto Sanchez had a decent first season as a pro including a net average of 42.6 which ranked fourth overall.
Quan Bray was fairly weak in his second season as the Colts primary kick returner. Ballard should try and add a receiver who could double as a returner.
If I were the Colts G.M.
Lots of possibilities here. First in free agency I would re-sign Melvin, Mewhort, Moncrief and Vinatieri from my own list and then RT Cameron Fleming from New England to help strengthen the line. The top draft choice will come down to either RB Saquon Barkley, DE Bradley Chubb or DB Minkah Fitzpatrick. I would entertain trading down a few spots if some team where desperate enough and as long as I could still take one of my top three choices, because all three would be great additions. If I remain where I am then my pecking order depending on availability would be Barkley first, Chubb second and Fitzpatrick third.
Besides some of the players mentioned in this report, I would look early to add an ace receiver/returner combo in Christian Kirk from Texas A&M or Dante Pettis from Washington as well as a good tight end prospect a bit later like Mike Gesicki from Penn State, Christopher Herndon from Miami, Troy Fumagalli from Wisconsin or Dalton Schultz from Stanford.